Despite some recent volatility, Bitcoin has been surging lately. Over the past six months, it has climbed nearly 55%, setting new all-time highs with the speed of Michael Phelps in an Olympic race. Over the last decade, it has outpaced many other asset classes in performance.
For some crypto enthusiasts, the debate isn’t about whether Bitcoin will succeed — it’s about how high its price could climb. ARK Invest’s bullish projection places Bitcoin near $1.5 million by 2030, while MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor is even more aggressive, forecasting a price of $13 million by 2045.
If you’re feeling like you’ve missed the Bitcoin boom, these bold predictions from major players might offer some comfort. Still, they are incredibly ambitious — and that’s coming from someone who’s bullish on Bitcoin. Let’s first explore why such outcomes could be possible, and then dive into why they might not be.
The case for Bitcoin to reach $1 million
At its core, Bitcoin’s long-term success depends on broader adoption. ARK Invest highlights several possible growth drivers, including the prospect of more countries recognizing Bitcoin as legal tender — following the lead of El Salvador and the Central African Republic.
Bitcoin also has the potential to disrupt the global remittance market by making international money transfers faster and cheaper. Straits Research estimated the digital remittance market at nearly $23 billion in 2023, and ARK’s most bullish forecasts suggest Bitcoin could capture up to 25% of that market.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s role as a form of digital gold strengthens the optimistic outlook, especially as institutional adoption increases. Like gold, Bitcoin operates outside of government control and has a finite supply. This scarcity could position it as an effective hedge against inflation, although it still needs to fully prove its resilience in that role.
Currently, much of the recent rally has been fueled by optimism over a potentially more favorable regulatory landscape. However, it’s still too soon to predict how things will unfold over the long term — regulation remains an unpredictable and volatile force.
Here’s why Bitcoin’s unlikely to reach $1 million before 2035
Bitcoin has been hovering near the $100,000 mark for the past few months. To hit $1 million within the next decade, it would need to grow tenfold — a significant leap, especially for an asset that’s still relatively young, highly volatile, and carries environmental concerns.
The introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has made it easier than ever for investors to gain exposure to the original cryptocurrency. The influx of both retail and institutional money has helped reduce Bitcoin’s volatility and polish its reputation. Still, owning Bitcoin through an ETF doesn’t mean people are actively using it for transactions.
If they were, they’d quickly discover the technology’s ongoing challenges with transaction fees and processing times. Picture trying to do your holiday shopping and waiting anywhere from 10 to 60 minutes for each payment to clear — while paying $1 to $2 in fees per transaction. Although the Lightning Network is making progress, there’s still a long road ahead.
Another major concern is Bitcoin’s association with illicit activity. According to The Motley Fool’s research into crypto-related scams, cryptocurrency remains the top payment method for investment fraud — and that’s without even diving into the role it plays in ransomware attacks.
If $1 million is unlikely, should you still buy Bitcoin?
If you’re considering whether cryptocurrency is a good investment, it’s best not to get swept up by pundits and their lofty predictions. Instead, focus on doing your own research into the underlying technology, regulatory landscape, and practical use cases.
The reality is, there’s still a lot we don’t know — from potential regulatory shifts and unexpected security vulnerabilities to broader economic disruptions. There’s also always the risk of another major exchange collapse, similar to what happened with FTX.
Bitcoin can certainly have a place in a diversified portfolio, especially if you’re prepared to hold it long term and weather short-term volatility. You can further manage the risks by only investing money you can afford to lose and keeping Bitcoin as a small portion of your overall investments.
With favorable conditions, Bitcoin’s price could eventually hit $1 million — but it’s important not to build your strategy around that hope.